Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 11.941466 13.669999 15.526342 17.664070 20.053592 22.637955 25.640096
2025-10-05 9.637632 12.042272 14.819847 18.248086 22.347038 27.071173 32.907096
2025-10-12 8.400175 11.105532 14.379154 18.599353 23.859341 30.160297 38.236157
2025-10-19 7.231432 10.073389 13.662388 18.475572 24.702443 32.421441 42.639777
2025-10-26 6.311782 9.209940 13.010364 18.285674 25.333352 34.329057 46.567794
2025-11-02 5.636204 8.582219 12.580444 18.305732 26.177825 36.489891 50.861633
2025-11-09 5.117763 8.105809 12.291109 18.456492 27.156729 38.821530 55.430716
2025-11-16 4.610391 7.586301 11.883327 18.387005 27.793388 40.683818 59.409843
2025-11-23 4.146502 7.080273 11.442547 18.218222 28.249793 42.283484 63.057214
2025-11-30 3.818002 6.747361 11.222705 18.341052 29.106655 44.450914 67.552161
2025-12-07 3.616707 6.595025 11.258346 18.836022 30.516653 47.443870 73.312980
2025-12-14 3.274929 6.177798 10.844886 18.604226 30.809568 48.810540 76.757909
2025-12-21 2.839861 5.566169 10.081586 17.782676 30.170997 48.798332 78.221870
2025-12-28 2.711339 5.476755 10.164691 18.320050 31.668201 52.038840 84.643663
2026-01-04 2.564967 5.339266 10.152204 18.690563 32.905281 54.915492 90.600463
2026-01-11 2.347917 5.049472 9.854564 18.559887 33.317826 56.523850 94.662455
2026-01-18 2.143751 4.762989 9.538519 18.371472 33.614700 57.947062 98.468940
2026-01-25 1.989596 4.558278 9.351737 18.390817 34.249308 59.917606 103.186908
2026-02-01 1.867212 4.404847 9.245875 18.542471 35.107169 62.268320 108.574839
2026-02-08 1.726685 4.199683 9.026710 18.472602 35.573356 63.988147 112.994241
2026-02-15 1.586670 3.980983 8.764097 18.303170 35.850148 65.394917 116.937593
2026-02-22 1.492053 3.851001 8.663515 18.426486 36.643776 67.681788 122.384844
2026-03-01 1.444313 3.820801 8.758274 18.923463 38.125686 71.174596 129.931570